Sunday, November 22, 2009

Water, water everywhere....

This article was first published in the international Cleantech Investor magazine. Email info@auscleantech if you would like a full version of the article.

Australia is blessed with many natural resources to assist the growth of its cleantech sector. Some of the wind resources are exceptional, the wave resources are world leading and the hot rocks are driving big investments into the geothermal sector. Most of all, Australia is synonymous with solar radiation and much of the country has a ridiculous amount of solar resource to play with. There are of course issues with respect to NIMBY complaints for sites near communities and the fact that the best resources are never closest to those population centres – luckily the desert has few back yards to worry about.

Australia has another natural competitive advantage in the cleantech space: one that is not so apparent. The climate is highly variable with respect to its rainfall and as such there can be long periods of drought followed by long ‘wets’. Much of South-Eastern Australia is still suffering from the effects of a drought that started in the first years of decade. This has led to severe water restrictions in many areas, with the banning of sprinklers and specified watering days. This variability is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, but its existence is not new. The natural competitive advantage of having little water has therefore made the Australian water industry innovate to survive.

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Sydney Cleantech Network Event - 19 November


Clayton Utz hosted the Sydney Cleantech Network event on 19 November with over 140 attendees.

The evening featured a presentation from Matthew Warren, CEO of the Clean Energy Council on ‘Whether tax breaks help cleantech companies across the valley of death?’.

This was followed by two minute pitches from the following growth companies:

- BluGlass - Giles Bourne - www.bluglass.com.au (LEDs and Solar)
- NEP Solar - Johan Dreyer - www.nep-solar.com (Solar)
- Elemental Energy Technologies - Michael Urch - www.eettidal.com (Tidal)
- BTOLA - Bevan Dooley - www.btola.com (Biomass)
- Fuel Concepts - Andre Botelho - www.fuelconcepts.com - as I mentioned on night Andre was unfortunately detained and will present at the February event. (Vehicles)


Other links mentioned during the evening were:

- Azo Cleantech - www.azocleantech.com - onlisting of cleantech products and services.
- CleverGreen Conference, Adelaide, 15-16 February - www.southaustralia.biz/Innovation-in-SA /Clever-Green-Conference-2010.aspx
- Cleantech Investor, international cleantech publication - www.cleantechinvestor.com


The next event will be held on 11 February and will be hosted by Macquarie Bank. If you wish to be added to the distribution list for this and future events please email scn@auscleantech.com.au.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Sydney Cleantech Network Event, 19th November - SPEAKER & PICHTING COMPANY DETAILS

You are invited to attend the Sydney Cleantech Network on Thursday 19 November 2009 from 5:30 until 7:00pm

at the offices of Clayton Utz, Level 34, No.1 O'Connell Street

Including:

- a presentation from Matthew Warren, CEO of the Clean Energy Council on ‘Whether tax breaks help cleantech companies across the valley of death?’.

- 2 minute pitches from the following growth companies:

BluGlass - BluGlass (ASX: BLG) is developing innovative semiconductor technology to reduce the cost of producing next generation high efficiency LED and solar cell devices.

BTOLA - A global opportunity to halve the cost of micro-generation, with BTOLA’s patent pending turbines that run on biomass, waste and more

Fuel Concepts - Fuel Concepts is an Australia based company that is the worldwide licensee and distributor for a patented technology (founded by Fuel Concepts of America) that substantially reduces fuel consumption and carbon emissions for any gas-electric vehicles.

Elemental Energy Technologies - The SeaUrchin is an elegantly simple and efficient, environmentally-friendly, second generation marine vortex turbine generator offering major cost, performance and deployment advantages over the first generation marine technologies occupying the market place today.

NEP Solar - NEP Solar is a supplier of concentrating solar thermal collectors; its first product the PolyTrough is a parabolic trough collector aimed at the industrial heat market (up to 250°C) focussing on lowest cost per kWh delivered over the life cycle .

There is no charge for attendance but bookings are essential and you will not be able to attend without having pre-registered.

Please RSVP by COB Tuesday 17 November to scn@auscleantech.com.au

Green Bubbles?

This article was originally published in Ethical Investor

For those of you who always see the glass half-empty, there is much to worry about in ‘green’ investments at the moment. If you look a bit deeper however, the fundamentals of cleantech investing are actually becoming even stronger.

So, first for the bad news! The CPRS is still uncertain and appears to be getting weaker by the day. The geothermal industry is progressing slowly but is still suffering the aftershocks of Geodynamics well blow-out. The solar thermal industry was perplexed by the outlined criteria for the Solar Flagships Program, which is currently being rebuilt by the Boston Consulting Group. Furthermore, many see the credibility of solar thermal to be damaged by the collapse of Solar Systems after spending a huge $150m in development capital. The Biofuels industry collapsed in 2006 and, as indicated by the 43% loss in ACT Biofuels Index in the 12 months to 31 August, continues to decline. The plug-in electric vehicles being developed the world over will face little challenge from The Green Car Fund’s support of Holden’s four-cylinder ‘innovation’ and the hybrid Camry.

Wind farms could be seen as the only hope in the energy sub-sectors, but, with the honourable exception of Infigen Energy, little of the consequent investor benefits are held in dedicated listed vehicles.

Institutional investors in Australia, despite the great work of publications such as this, are largely unaware and uneducated on the potential and the practical risk profiles of cleantech investments. This has meant that will not provide funds and mandates to the venture industry to enable the commercialisation and growth of many of the emerging sectors. Some of the venture capital fund managers would love to be provided with more ambitious mandates, but the institutional investors are not yet ready to take that step.

The good news is that all of the above has meant that there has certainly been little irrational exuberance in the Australian cleantech market with the corollary that there was no Australian bubble to burst. The only sub-sector that showed signs overheating here was in the last group of listing geothermal companies.

But there is more good news other than there being no bubble to burst. The growth of cleantech investments is underpinned by four key and strong macro-economic drivers. Firstly, there are many tangible assets being constructed to provide core services such as power, water, waste and recycling. Secondly, the demand for these core services and for a reduced impacts on the natural environment is growing due to both population growth and increasing wealth. Thirdly, as the world continues to use and deplete its natural resources there is increasing pressure on communities to adopt cleantech solutions to increase efficiency and decrease waste. Finally there is the recognition of climate change and consequent regulatory regimes.

There is also increasing activity on a local and global scale that will assist in the growth of Australian cleantech companies and secure returns for their investors. Azo Cleantech, run out of Sydney, is fast becoming one of the world’s leading reference tools for cleantech companies and provides an opportunity to take Australian products to the world. The Adelaide and Sydney Cleantech Network’s offer opportunities for companies to pitch and for all involved in the industry to network and collaborate. My company is working successfully with Australian listed cleantech companies and successfully connecting them with institutional investors in Germany to increase the diversity and strength of their share registries.

Regardless of political decisions, the future for cleantech, both here and abroad, is bright. It has multiple global drivers and government backing which makes it stand out from previous growth industries. As it grows, mainstream corporate Australia will buy in because of supply chain pressures from their customers and also from increased environmental performance reporting by groups such as Reputex.
The glass is definitely half full and the opportunities for good returns from investing in cleantech are plentiful.

Australian politics, wind and batteries….

This article was originally published in the international Cleantech Investor.

The media coverage of the latest round of climate related legislation in Australia has been hysterical to say the least. Emissions intensive industries will emigrate to carbon-friendly countries, coal fired power stations have already stopped long term maintenance causing power cuts in the height of summer, exports will be slashed, jobs will be lost and the country will generally go into a steep and unavoidable economic decline.

The voice of the cleantech industry is not as loud, but is not dissimilar – potential green jobs will be lost, the country will be left behind etc etc. I’m sure there is nothing unique about the Australian debate.

The legislation that has been passed establishes a Renewable Energy Target (RET) of 20% of stationary power to be generated from renewable sources by 2020. This will increase the annual generation from its current 9,500GWh to 45,000GWh. The legislation is enforced through energy retailers having to submit sufficient Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) as compared to their total energy sold. As the RECs can be banked in advance, it is believed that most of the target will be taken up onshore wind farms constructed over the next five years or so. This could lead to over 10,000MW of installed wind capacity being constructed at a cost of over A$20 billion. Forecast forward REC prices vary, but may end up at around A$40 with a REC being roughly equivalent to 1 tonne-CO2e.

Another piece of legislation that was defeated in the Upper House and will be re-introduced into the parliament in November is the Australian Emissions Trading Scheme, which the Government has called the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). This was voted down primarily by conservative politicians worried about impacts on both rural communities and emissions intensive industries. There was also a resurgence of climate scepticism and a view that there is no point making any decisions until after Copenhagen. The scheme, in its current form, is a heavily watered down version of the first draft. It proposes a fixed carbon tax for its first year of operation starting in July 2011 and then a tradeable carbon commodity thereafter. The targets are modest at only a 5% reduction on 2000 levels by 2020 and the carbon price is not expected to exceed A$25/tonne-CO2e during this time. There are aspirational targets that are bigger but the conditions are sufficiently onerous to preclude their consideration. There are carve outs for petrol and for most of the emissions intensive and export industries, so, even if passed, the CPRS will not appear to drive significant behaviour change. The draft allows for unlimited import of credits from CDM projects but no export of credits from Australian projects. This has met with disappointment from investors looking towards developing local projects and seeking to trade credits on other markets with tighter targets and the potential for higher carbon prices.

There has been significant debate here on the impacts of this legislation on the cleantech industry in general and which subsectors will be most impacted. Over the longer term, the technology winners will be those technologies that provide required solutions at the lowest costs. In the short term however, there will be a huge impacts on individuals, companies and investors.

A quick look at which of the sub-sectors of the Australian Cleantech Index have performed well in the last six months demonstrates the correlation between policy and investment returns. The ACT Solar Index has increase by 119% in the 6 months since 31 January, driven entirely by the increased demand for rooftop solar photovoltaic panels resulting from government rebates for small scale pV installations. For instance, investors with $1,000 invested in Quantum Energy on 31 January 2009 could have cashed in $3,750 if they had sold out six months later.
Over the same period, the ACT Wind Index increased by 33.1%, roughly in line with the overall index. The RET legislation had not yet been passed and investors were clearly not yet confident enough in its passage to inflate the share price of the likely beneficiaries. There is a strong expectation that these enhanced returns will now materialise.

Big solar also appears to be set to make significant progress through a A$1.5 billion Government funding program to be rolled out from 2010. Winners from this may include companies such as Wizard Power, Acquasol and Solar Systems.
A valid question is whether the investment in wind will exhaust the investment appetite for cleantech and leave nothing for the other sub-sectors. Will sub-sectors such as water, waste, vehicle technologies, energy efficiency and energy storage simply stagnate in Australia whilst their cleantech cousins in clean energy boom?
Looking at the fundamental drivers of cleantech, the answer is clearly ‘no’. The other sub-sectors may not accelerate as fast in the short term and maybe the investment returns will not be so strong. However, the demand for increased resource efficiency, reduced waste and improved environmental performance will ensure that technologies across the Australian cleantech spectrum will succeed even in the short term.

Given the focus of this edition is on electric vehicles (EVs), it is worth providing an overview of the current activity within this sub-sector in Australia. Better Place has recently announced its first Australian project in the nation’s capital, Canberra, with financial support from Macquarie Bank.

There has however been little progress on the domestic development of electric vehicles, with talk more of trials of imported vehicles from the likes of Mitsubishi and Renault. To demonstrate the status of the Australian car industry, the local GM subsidiary, GM Holden, made a big announcement in late 2008 that, with significant and vocal Government support, it would start to manufacture a four cylinder car within a few years as a significant energy efficiency on its standard six cylinder model!

Battery technologies are however progressing well and some of these may find homes in EVs manufactured elsewhere. technologies such as Cap-XX’s supercapacitors, Cougar Energy’s and V-Fuel’s vanadium based batteries and ZBB’s and RedFlow Energy’s zinc-bromide batteries are all progressing well. There are also some exciting battery technologies coming out of research institutions such as the CSIRO, although many of these struggle to secure sufficient seed funding.

In summary, the Australian legislative agenda is progressing, although more slowly than many had hoped when the current centre-left government was elected in late 2007. The biggest winner from policy settings to date have been household solar and it seems that wind may well be the big winner over the next few years. Australia is a long way behind on EV developments although its battery technologies have significant potential, if they are able to attract sufficient early stage funding.